10 Proofs Stages of Denial Scientific Topics Types of Argument Levels of Sophistication
Individual articles will appear under multiple headings and may even appear in multiple subcategories in the same heading.
The Big 10 Sources of Evidence for Climate Change
Stages of Denial
- There’s nothing happening
Inadequate evidence:
There is no evidence
One record year is not global warming
The temperature record is simply unreliable
One hundred years is not enough
Glaciers have always grown and receded
Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
Mauna Loa is a volcano
The scientists aren’t even sure
Contradictory evidence:
It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
Antarctic ice is growing
The satellites show cooling
What about mid-century cooling?
Global warming stopped in 1998
But the glaciers are not melting
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Sea level in the Arctic is falling
Some sites show cooling
- We don’t know why it’s happening
There’s no consensus:
Global warming is a hoax
There is no consensus
Position statements hide debate
Consensus is collusion
Peiser refuted Oreskes
The models don’t work:
We cannot trust unproven computer models
The models don’t have clouds
If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Prediction is impossible:
We can’t even predict the weather next week
Chaotic systems are not predictable
We can’t be sure:
Hansen has been wrong before
If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the
present?
The scientists aren’t even sure
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
- Climate change is natural
It happened before:
It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
Greenland used to be green
Global warming is nothing new!
The hockey stick is broken
Vineland was full of grapes
It’s part of a natural change:
Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
Mars and Pluto are warming too
CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
Climate is always changing
Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
The CO2 rise is natural
We are just recovering from the LIA
It’s not caused by CO2:
Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
Mars and Pluto are warming too
CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
What about mid-century cooling?
Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
It’s the sun, stupid
- Climate change is not bad
The effects are good:
What’s wrong with warmer weather?
- Climate change can’t be stopped
It’s too late:
Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
It’s someone else’s problem:
Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
It’s economically infeasible:
Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
Scientific Topics
- Temperature
There is no evidence
The temperature record is simply unreliable
One hundred years is not enough
Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
What’s wrong with warmer weather?
It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
The satellites show cooling
Global warming stopped in 1998
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
One record year is not global warming
Some sites show cooling
- Cryosphere
Glaciers
Glaciers have always grown and receded
But the glaciers are not melting
Sea ice
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
Antarctic ice is growing
Ice sheets
Greenland used to be green
Oceans
Sea level in the Arctic is falling
- Modeling
Scenarios
Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
Hansen has been wrong before
Uncertainties
We can’t even predict the weather next week
Chaotic systems are not predictable
We cannot trust unproven computer models
The models don’t have clouds
- Climate forcings
Solar influences
Mars and Pluto are warming too
It’s the sun, stupid
Greenhouse gases
Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
What about mid-century cooling?
Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
Mauna Loa is a volcano
The CO2 rise is natural
Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
The US is a net CO2 sink
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Aerosols
What about mid-century cooling?
If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
- Paleo climate
Holocene
It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
Greenland used to be green
The hockey stick is broken
Vineland was full of grapes
We are just recovering from the LIA
Ice ages
CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
Global warming is nothing new!
Geologic history
What’s wrong with warmer weather?
Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
Climate is always changing
Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the
present?
Scientific process
Global warming is a hoax
There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
There is no consensus
The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
Position statements hide debate
If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the
present?
The scientists aren’t even sure
Consensus is collusion
Peiser refuted Oreskes
Types of Argument
Uninformed
There is no evidence
One record year is not global warming
One hundred years is not enough
There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
What’s wrong with warmer weather?
Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
There is no consensus
We cannot trust unproven computer models
Misinformed
It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
Antarctic ice is growing
CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
Greenland used to be green
The satellites show cooling
Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
It’s the sun, stupid
The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
But the glaciers are not melting
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
Vineland was full of grapes
Cherry Picking
It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
Antarctic sea ice is growing
The satellites show cooling
Global warming stopped in 1998
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
Vineland was full of grapes
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
The sea level in the Arctic is falling
Some sites show cooling
Urban Myths
The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
Greenland used to be green
Hansen has been wrong before
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
Vineland was full of grapes
FUD
The temperature record is simply unreliable
Glaciers have always grown and receded
Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
Mars and Pluto are warming too
It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
There is no consensus
Antarctic ice is growing
Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
We can’t even predict the weather next week
Chaotic systems are not predictable
What about mid-century cooling?
The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
Climate is always changing
Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
Mauna Loa is a volcano
Global warming is nothing new!
The CO2 rise is natural
The hockey stick is broken
Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
The models don’t have clouds
Global warming stopped in 1998
If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the
present?
If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
The scientists aren’t even sure
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
Peiser refuted Oreskes
Vineland was full of grapes
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Sea level in the Arctic is falling
We are just recovering from the LIA
Non-Scientific
Global warming is a hoax
Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
Hansen has been wrong before
Position statements hide debate
The scientists aren’t even sure
Consensus is collusion
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
Levels of Sophistication
Silly
There is no evidence Global warming is a hoax
One record year is not global warming
Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
Mars and Pluto are warming too
Mauna Loa is a volcano
Naive
One hundred years is not enough
Glaciers have always grown and receded
Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
We can’t even predict the weather next week
We can not trust unproven computer models
The satellites show cooling
Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
The models don’t have clouds
Global warming stopped in 1998
It’s the sun, stupid
If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the
present?
The scientists aren’t even sure
Vineland was full of grapes
Some sites show cooling
Specious
The temperature record is simply unreliable
Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
What’s wrong with warmer weather?
Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
There is no consensus Antarctic ice is growing
Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
Greenland used to be green
What about mid-century cooling?
The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
Climate is always changing
Global warming is nothing new!
The CO2 rise is natural
Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
Hansen has been wrong before
Position statements hide debate
But the glaciers are not melting
If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm
faster
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
Consensus is collusion
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
Peiser refuted Oreskes
Vineland was full of grapes
Scientific
Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
Chaotic systems are not predictable
The hockey stick is broken
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Sea level in the Arctic is falling
We are just recovering from the LIA
The Big 10 Sources of Evidence for Climate Change
Climate Change Proofs; Direct Surface Temperature analysis, Satellite Data, Radiosondes, Borehole analysis, Glacial melt observations, Sea ice melt, Sea level rise, Proxy Reconstructions, Permafrost melt
The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis ver. 4 (GISTEMP v4) is an estimate of global surface temperature change. Graphs and tables are updated around the middle of every month using current data files from NOAA GHCN v4 (meteorological stations) and ERSST v5 (ocean areas), combined as described in our publications Hansen et al. (2010) and Lenssen et al. (2019). These updated files incorporate reports for the previous month and also late reports and corrections for earlier months.
1 - NASA GISS direct surface temperature analysis
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
2 - CRU direct surface temperature analysis
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018JD028355
Satellite temperature measurements are inferences of the temperature of the atmosphere at various altitudes as well as sea and land surface temperatures obtained from radiometric measurements by satellites. These measurements can be used to locate weather fronts, monitor the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, determine the strength of tropical cyclones, study urban heat islands and monitor the global climate. Wildfires, volcanos, and industrial hot spots can also be found via thermal imaging from weather satellites.
3 - Satellite Data
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements
Surface temperatures and thickness-derived temperatures from a 63-station, globally distributed radiosonde network have been used to estimate global, hemispheric, and zonal annual and seasonal temperature deviations. Most of the temperature values used were column-mean temperatures, obtained from the differences in height (thickness) between constant-pressure surfaces at individual radiosonde stations. The pressure-height data before 1980 were obtained from published values in Monthly Climatic Data for the World. Between 1980 and 1990, Angell used data from both the Climatic Data for the World and the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) Network received at the National Meteorological Center. Between 1990 and 1995, the data were obtained only from GTS, and since 1995 the data have been obtained from National Center for Atmospheric Research files.
4 - Radiosondes
https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/temp/angell/angell.html
Paleoclimatology data are derived from natural sources such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments. These proxy climate data extend the archive of weather and climate information hundreds to millions of years. The data include geophysical or biological measurement time series and some reconstructed climate variables such as temperature and precipitation.
5 - Borehole Analysis
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
Because they are so sensitive to temperature fluctuations, glaciers provide clues about the effects of global warming ( Oerlemans, J. 2001 ). The 1991 discovery of the 5,000 year-old "ice man" preserved in a glacier in the European Alps fascinated the world, yet the discovery meant that this glacier had reached a 5,000-year minimum. With few exceptions, glaciers around the world have retreated at unprecedented rates over the last century.
6 - Glacial Melt Observations
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/glacier_balance.html
For the fourth consecutive year, NSIDC and NASA scientists using satellite data have tracked a stunning reduction in arctic sea ice at the end of the northern summer. The persistence of near-record low extents leads the group to conclude that Arctic sea ice is likely on an accelerating, long-term decline.
7 - Sea Ice Melt
https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/20050928_trendscontinue.html
Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites.
8 - Sea Level Rise
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
Paleoclimatology data are derived from natural sources such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments. These proxy climate data extend the archive of weather and climate information hundreds to millions of years. The data include geophysical or biological measurement time series and some reconstructed climate variables such as temperature and precipitation.
9 - Proxy Reconstructions
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data
Permafrost thaw is one of the gravest yet lesser discussed impacts of climate change. Permafrost covers 24 percent of the surface of land masses in the northern hemisphere and accounts for nearly half of all organic carbon stored within the planet’s soil. As long as this organic matter remains frozen, it will stay trapped in the permafrost. However, if it thaws, microbes will begin to eat the material, causing it to decay and releasing carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. Even if a small fraction of these greenhouse gases are released, it will have major consequences on not only the Arctic, but Earth’s entire climate system, as they intensify global climate change.
10 - Permafrost Melt
There is simply no room for doubt: the Earth is undergoing a rapid and large warming trend.
https://grist.org/climate-energy/there-is-no-evidence/
How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic
https://grist.org/series/skeptics/
